O’Brien’s form dips despite strong season
Aidan O’Brien is in the middle of the ‘worst downturn in form’ since 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic, say experts. This season the master trainer has won the Epsom Derby for the 12th time and topped the Royal Ascot trainer rankings which have established him nearly £2 million clear in the British Flat trainers championship.
Yet the stable’s form has taken a unwelcome dip with ratings experts Timeform revealing that this July is not only his worst month on recent record, but that the current Flat season is the worst for the Ballydoyle handler since it introduced its ‘Run to Form’ metric was in 2012. O’Brien’s present record of just three wins from his last 48 runners tells part of the story but the data garnered by points to the worst downturn in form for the yard since the 2020 season which was impacted by Covid.
The form will concern punters ahead of Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in which the stable is set to run Benvenuto Cellini, Minnie Hauk, Lambourn and Action at Ascot.
At Glorious Goodwood next week O’Brien is expected to field high profile Group 1 contenders such as Scandinavia, Gstaad and Diamond Necklace.
Timeform measure highlights Ballydoyle concern
Timeform’s ‘Run To Form’ metric compares a horse’s pre-race rating to the rating achieved, meaning that factors such as a horse’s consistency and trainer form can be assessed. It can be a much better gauge of a horse, trainer, or jockey than strike rate as it factors in much more than a simple result.
Senior Analyst Kieran Clark said:
“With Aidan O’Brien’s ‘Run to Form’ percentage for the season currently at 54, it’s the lowest by at least five percent since we started publishing the figures.
“This is obviously a concern with major targets on the horizon for some of his stable stars in the next week and it’ll be interesting to see how those to have already run this month fare next time, particularly if the form of the yard has improved by then.”
