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F1 returns from summer break: title race, Verstappen's future and Aston Martin's rise under scrutiny

As F1 returns from its summer break at Zandvoort, Sky Sports pundit Karun Chandhok assesses the title race, Max Verstappen's future, Fernando Alonso's decision and Aston Martin's development.

By The Sports Pulse Editorial Team··9 min read·How we work
Formula 1: Who will win the title? Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull? Key questions and predictions from Karun Chandhok as 2026 season resumes

The Formula 1 paddock reconvenes this week as the 2026 championship resumes following its summer shutdown, with the Dutch Grand Prix marking the start of a run-in that will shape both titles.

According to Formula1.com, the Zandvoort weekend now runs from 21 to 23 August 2026, with Sprint Qualifying taking place on the Friday, the Sprint itself on Saturday, and the Grand Prix following on Sunday 23 August. The race itself is scheduled to run for 72 laps around the Dutch coastal circuit, per the same source.

Sky Sports F1 pundit Karun Chandhok was asked to assess the biggest questions hanging over the sport as it heads into the closing months of the campaign, both on the track and off it.

How many drivers still have a realistic shot at the title?

Kimi Antonelli's 50-point advantage at the top of the standings keeps him well clear of the pack, though the gap tightens further down, from Lewis Hamilton in second to Lando Norris - winner of the last race before the break in Hungary - in fifth. With two Sprints and as many as 12 Grands Prix still to run, up to 316 points remain up for grabs between now and December.

Chandhok said:

I think, realistically, this is Antonelli's championship to lose. Nobody has come back from this big a points deficit since we went to this scoring system in 2010. Kimi is driving well, he has got a lot of confidence in the car and the way it's working for him.
The only Achilles' heel seems to be Mercedes' reliability. That could be a challenge, but they are going to keep improving that. So realistically, I think it is his championship to lose, which is an extraordinary achievement in just his second year in F1.
The only thing I would say is, with the way the upgrades and updates are going, it will be interesting to see what Ferrari can do, and also whether any of Mercedes' upgrades help George Russell out, because it does feel like he has had obviously more bad luck but also a pace disadvantage this year.
I think it is only Lewis or maybe George who could challenge him, but it's more his to lose.

Our earlier coverage looked in more depth at who might still be able to catch Antonelli and what factors will decide the outcome as the sport returns from its break, while a separate piece examined whether Hamilton and Ferrari can turbocharge a title challenge given the young Italian's cushion.

Which team is the one to watch for development?

In-season development always matters in Formula 1, but this year the stakes are higher than usual as teams continue to work out how to extract maximum performance from the brand new 2026 aerodynamic regulations and power units. The opening half of the season threw up big swings in form depending on which teams brought fresh parts to which races, and that pattern looks set to continue now the sport is back racing.

Chandhok said:

I'm interested to see what McLaren do. Clearly the car was very good in Budapest and that bodes well for the Dutch Grand Prix because whoever is good in Budapest should have a good car for Zandvoort.
And they've got more bits coming this weekend on the rear end of the car as well, which is the second half of the update.
The big one to keep an eye out for is Red Bull, because they have been a bit more inconsistent and there's a bit of a battle on for them to play catch-up.
If you look at it across the season, they have had the fourth-fastest car, which is not ideal in terms of trying to keep Max happy and at the team.
So, Red Bull are the ones I'm most interested in watching out for to see if they can dig themselves out of this hole in terms of inconsistencies.

Where will Max Verstappen be racing in 2027?

This remains the question with the biggest knock-on effect for the rest of the driver market. Verstappen's contract with Red Bull runs until the end of 2028, but sitting outside the top two in the Drivers' Championship at the summer break - he is currently sixth - means a break clause has opened up that he could trigger for the end of this season if he chooses to. Whether he will remains unclear, with Verstappen understood to have until October to inform Red Bull of his intentions. What alternative seats might actually be available to him for 2027 is equally uncertain, despite ongoing speculation linking him to both McLaren and Mercedes.

Chandhok said:

I have no idea when Max will end up driving in 2027 but I think realistically, I don't think he knows yet either.
I think he is waiting to see where the Red Bull goes and really what other options there are.

Will Fernando Alonso continue in F1 for 2027 or retire?

Fernando Alonso has said the summer break would be his window to decide whether to press on into what would be a record-extending 24th season next year. The Spaniard, who turned 45 in July and became a father for the first time earlier this year, has pushed back on the idea that his decision hinges purely on how competitive he expects Aston Martin to be in 2027, saying his feelings about the sport's current regulations will also play a part.

Chandhok said:

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I think if Aston can demonstrate that they are going to make progress and Honda can demonstrate that they are making progress and they can give Alonso a car that at least gets him into Q3 and gives him something to fight for in 2027, then he will stick around.
He is not going to stick around to be someone who gets knocked out in Q1 all the time.

How far up the grid can Aston Martin climb?

Aston Martin were the clear underachievers of the season's opening half, hampered by a string of issues with their 2026 chassis and Honda engine that left them stuck at the back. The team hope their first upgrade package, introduced last time out in Hungary, marks the beginning of sustained progress. Further tweaks to Adrian Newey's AMR26, along with the long-awaited first engine upgrade due to land at Zandvoort, could accelerate that climb heading towards 2027.

Chandhok said:

Aston Martin have got to get themselves in a position where they need to end this year at least occasionally getting into Q3 because that then lays the foundation for 2027 and beyond.
The engine upgrades will be critical for that. If you look at their straight-line speed at Spa, it was shocking. They brought the updated chassis to Budapest and that seemed to give them some performance advantage, a decent step.
So really with the engine advantage, they might occasionally sneak themselves into Q3, which would be good progress but more importantly, a good foundation.

How many different winners could there be over the remaining rounds?

F1 went into its summer break on a run of five different winners across five races, with both Mercedes drivers, both Ferrari drivers and McLaren's Lando Norris all topping the podium during that spell.

Chandhok said:

I think there is a chance we could see both Ferrari drivers, McLaren drivers and Mercedes drivers winning races, and Max.
If Red Bull do upgrade well and bring good bits and pieces, then we could see Max winning. He wasn't that far off in Austria, and the car steadily made progress. They need a couple of jumps and they could do it.

What can be expected from Sepang's return and which drivers might it suit?

For the first time in nine years, Formula 1 will race at the popular Sepang International Circuit in October, after Malaysia stepped in to host the Bahrain Grand Prix. Sepang built a strong reputation among both drivers and fans across its 18 years on the calendar, prized for its challenging corner combinations and its capacity to produce good racing.

Chandhok said:

I love Sepang. I first raced there in 2001, which was my first year of international racing. I've been back in lots of different categories and have always absolutely loved the circuit.
I think it is a really interesting, challenging layout, good for racing. I'm delighted to see everyone going back there, albeit temporarily.
I think we are going to see a fantastic race. For this year's cars, there are plenty of opportunities to harvest and recharge the batteries and energy around chunks of the lap, so it should be a pretty good race all round.
It is going to be hot, so anyone who can keep the tyre temperatures under control will be in good shape.

Who ultimately wins the 2026 championships?

Antonelli's 50-point cushion at the midpoint of the season makes him the clear favourite with bookmakers, ahead of Hamilton and Russell, the latter having been most people's pick for the title before the season began.

Mercedes might already have the Constructors' title all but wrapped up had reliability problems not held them back, and even as things stand they lead Ferrari by 72 points. Still, Ferrari have out-scored Mercedes in each of the three races immediately before the break and, should reliability swing their way, cannot be written off just yet. It's also worth remembering that McLaren trailed Red Bull by 78 points with 12 races left in 2024 and went on to win the title, a reminder of how quickly momentum can shift.

Chandhok said:

I think this is Antonelli's drivers' title to lose, and Mercedes' Constructors' Championship to lose.

Mercedes technical director James Allison has echoed similar sentiments about where the real threat to Antonelli's lead lies. Our earlier reporting detailed how Allison believes fixing the team's 'self-inflicted wounds' matters more than fresh upgrades as the title fight resumes at a sold-out Zandvoort, and a related report noted that Allison sees reliability, rather than upgrades alone, as the decisive factor in Antonelli's bid to defend his lead.

What happens next

Free Practice 1 for the Dutch Grand Prix is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026, followed later that day by Sprint Qualifying, with the Sprint itself taking place on Saturday and the 72-lap Grand Prix rounding off the weekend on Sunday 23 August, according to Formula1.com.

Notably, organisers of the event have indicated that this will be the final Formula 1 race held at Zandvoort for the foreseeable future, with the Dutch Grand Prix set to drop off the calendar after this season, according to the Dutch GP's official website.

The 2026 season resumes with a Sprint weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix from Friday, with every session broadcast live on Sky Sports F1. Sky Sports can be streamed via NOW, with no contract required and the option to cancel at any time.

This article was sourced from Sky Sports

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