Lewis Jones, the tipster known as Jones Knows, has delivered his analysis and betting recommendations for a packed weekend of Premier League fixtures, identifying several standout opportunities across the division's matchday.
Everton vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
Dead-ball situations could prove decisive in this encounter, with statistical evidence pointing to Chelsea's vulnerability in this area. Everton under David Moyes have constructed a distinctive tactical identity centred on set-piece execution, leveraging their physical attributes and aerial dominance to convert corners and free kicks into genuine opportunities. Chelsea, by contrast, have struggled to establish a reliable defensive foundation from set plays. The Blues have already surrendered seven goals from set pieces this season—a higher tally than any other Premier League club.
This represents a persistent issue rather than a temporary blip. Since the beginning of last season, Chelsea have been conceding set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes, the worst ratio across the entire Premier League during that timeframe.
James Tarkowski emerges as an obvious target in the goalscorer market. The Everton defender functions as a major attacking weapon from set pieces, leading his club's defensive contingent in both touches within the opposition box and shot attempts. His recent form provides additional encouragement. Tarkowski has netted three times across his previous 15 appearances, including a goal against Bournemouth this campaign.
At 14/1 with Sky Bet, the odds prove sufficiently attractive to warrant consideration.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Jones Knows' best bet: James Tarkowski to score (14/1 with Sky Bet)
Brentford vs Liverpool, Saturday 3pm
Arne Slot's record against Brentford presents a troubling narrative. The Liverpool manager has endured seven meetings without victory and suffered five defeats during that sequence. Brentford's direct methodology has consistently created problems for his possession-oriented approach, finding ways to dismantle the press and transform contests into physical, second-ball battles that expose his teams' vulnerabilities.
Slot now commands superior personnel compared to his Bournemouth tenure, yet enhanced quality does not automatically resolve tactical dilemmas, particularly when opponents possess the blueprint to exploit them. Brentford have demonstrated their capacity to make this style of football uncomfortable.
Liverpool's early-season output makes concerning reading. The Reds have managed just six non-penalty Premier League goals—the sixth-lowest in the division. More troubling remains their inability to manufacture high-quality opportunities. They have created only nine Opta-defined big chances, a joint-lowest total alongside Aston Villa and Coventry. Brighton, for comparison, have fashioned 27.
Recent results underscore these concerns. Liverpool suffered a 3–0 defeat to Manchester City on 11 October, while Brentford drew 2–2 away to Aston Villa on 10 October, demonstrating the unpredictability both sides have shown in recent weeks.
The under 3.5 goals angle therefore holds appeal. At 11/10 with Sky Bet, combining Brentford on the double chance with under 3.5 goals provides an attractive proposition.
Score prediction: 2-1 | Jones Knows' best bet: Brentford double chance & under 3.5 goals (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Hull City, Saturday 3pm
The betting market continues to underestimate Hull City, with historical data seemingly carrying disproportionate weight in assessments of their prospects. However, football contests are not determined by statistical archives. Hull's current output warrants considerably greater respect than the odds suggest.
They have lost merely one of their six Premier League matches this season—the Newcastle defeat—yet even that reversal carried significant context: Hull won the expected goals battle. They also prevailed in that metric during their 2-2 draw at Chelsea.
Hull are demonstrating their capacity to compete with established Premier League operators while posing a genuine attacking threat.
They represent a dangerous proposition for Fulham, who have appeared alarmingly fragile when matches have turned against them. The collapses against Ipswich and Crystal Palace, having held winning positions, prove difficult to overlook. Against an opponent prepared to maintain pressure, that defensive vulnerability could prove costly.
At 6/5 with Sky Bet, Hull on the double chance constitutes the weekend's standout bet. The market continues to judge Hull on their historical profile rather than their current trajectory. This gap in perception presents an opportunity worth exploiting.
Score prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows' best bet: Hull double chance (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town, Saturday 3pm
Manchester City are accumulating victories at a rate that their underlying numbers cannot adequately explain. This does not necessarily constitute grounds for opposing them, but it does warrant questioning whether the market sufficiently accounts for the opportunities their opponents generate.
No team has outperformed its expected-goals model more dramatically than City. The expected-points model suggests they should have accumulated approximately seven fewer points than they currently possess. That discrepancy merits examination. The gap extends beyond City's ruthless finishing; it encompasses the chances they permit at the opposite end.
Sunderland generated 2.97 expected goals from 17 shots against City. Coventry managed 12 shots in their 1-0 defeat at the Etihad. These instances illustrate City's defensive exposure.
This opens a pathway for Ipswich to contribute to the scoring. At 4/5 with Sky Bet, both teams to score represents the optimal angle. City's results may sparkle in the Premier League, yet their underlying defensive metrics reveal a less reassuring picture.
Score prediction: 3-1
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm
Johan Manzambi possesses the potential to emerge as one of the Premier League's breakthrough performers this season. Under Unai Emery's direction, the young Swiss forward has received a prominent role operating off the central striker, and early indicators suggest he is prepared to capitalise on this opportunity.
His shot volume commands particular attention. Across his previous three starts, Manzambi has accumulated 13 shots, with four finding the target and two converting into goals. When that volume combines with a favourable fixture, the goalscorer market becomes intriguing.
Newcastle present an exceptionally vulnerable defensive opponent. Should the Magpies concede here, they will establish a new club record for consecutive home matches across all competitions without a clean sheet (16). Their defensive record at St James' Park throughout this calendar year proves particularly damning, surrendering 36 goals while maintaining just two clean sheets across 20 home matches in all competitions.
Manzambi's recent shooting statistics warrant backing. At 3/1 with Sky Bet, his chances of scoring merit serious consideration.
Score prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows' best bet: Johan Manzambi to score (3/1 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Sunderland, Sunday 2pm
Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed a combined single victory across their six matches this season. Such an inauspicious beginning alters the psychological landscape of a football match. Confidence becomes fragile and avoiding defeat can supersede the pursuit of victory.
This context renders under 2.5 goals at Evens an intriguing proposition with Sky Bet. Bournemouth's historical goal-scoring patterns might tempt consideration of another open, entertaining contest. Across their previous 50 matches, the average total stands at 3.1 goals per game. However, caution should govern reliance on that data in this particular scenario.
Following the concession of five goals in a single match at Chelsea, it remains natural for a team to reassess priorities. Defensive stability can become paramount. This context makes the draw an interesting possibility, which aligns with a low-scoring contest. Neither side has demonstrated sufficient quality to inspire complete confidence, and a cagey affair in which both teams resist excessive risk would hardly constitute a surprise.
Score prediction: 1-1
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm
Pascal Gross has established himself as one of the Premier League's most outstanding contributors this season. He functions as the player who makes Brighton operate. Yet he simultaneously carries a formidable goal threat.
Four goals already this campaign underscores that point. Incorporate his penalty-taking responsibilities and multiple pathways to a goal emerge. The market appears to anticipate a comfortable Brighton victory, with their expected goal output approaching three. This creates an intriguing opportunity within the player goalscorer markets. If Brighton are expected to score prolifically, why does the market offer 7/2 with Sky Bet about one of their most influential players finding the net? That price appears generous.
Gross possesses the technical quality to arrive in dangerous positions, the composure to convert opportunities and the added advantage of penalty duties. In a fixture where Brighton are projected to create abundantly, those attributes render him an appealing candidate to register on the scoresheet.
Score prediction: 3-0 | Jones Knows' best bet: Pascal Gross to score (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Leeds United vs Manchester United, Sunday 2pm
Leeds merit backing at the available odds, with 13/10 offered by Sky Bet. The noise surrounding Manchester United can become so overwhelming that it distorts the betting market, yet the current turmoil at Old Trafford renders the odds-against price for a Leeds victory particularly compelling.
This represents a nightmare fixture for a United side who appear fragile, disjointed and incapable of managing opponents who bring relentless intensity. Leeds will manufacture an uncomfortable afternoon where transforming the atmosphere at Elland Road becomes crucial. United have demonstrated this season that they struggle when opponents impose physical and emotional pressure.
Leeds have accumulated 45 points from 31 Premier League games since the beginning of December 2025—a tally surpassed by only five teams. Their home record proves even more persuasive. Leeds have collected 29 points on their own pitch during that period. Only Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United have gathered more.
Leeds host Manchester United at 2pm on Sunday, 18 October, presenting an opportunity for the home side to capitalise on United's current fragility. The market continues to award Manchester United excessive credit for their historical standing while insufficiently penalising their contemporary shortcomings. Back Leeds to deliver intensity and secure the points.
Score prediction: 2-0 | Jones Knows' best bet: Leeds to beat Manchester United (13/10 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm
Arsenal maintain their status as one of the Premier League's elite defensive units, yet evidence suggests that William Saliba's absence is exerting a marginal impact on their capacity to restrict opponents. This represents a subtle adjustment rather than a dramatic deterioration, yet subtle shifts carry significance when the market continues pricing a defence as though it operates at peak efficiency.
With Gabriel and Saliba paired together, Arsenal have averaged 0.65 expected goals against per game. This season, that figure has risen to 0.9. While hardly constituting a defensive collapse, this represents a meaningful increase. Arsenal have surrendered five goals across their previous four Premier League games.
This suggests opponents may encounter more opportunities for breakthrough than the market assumes. Nottingham Forest represent an intriguing opponent in this regard. Their recent attacking performances have merited greater reward, with Forest averaging 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. That constitutes a healthy level of chance creation and indicates their goal threat exceeds their actual returns.
At 10/11 with Sky Bet, both teams to score represents the play. Arsenal remain formidable, yet their defensive numbers have shifted in the wrong direction while Forest are manufacturing sufficient chances to suggest a goal materialises.
Score prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows' best bet: Both teams to score (10/11 with Sky Bet)
